How much money it takes to halve child poverty by 2010
Thought blog readers might find it useful if I flagged up the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ thoughts on how the Budget affects progress towards the government’s target of halving child poverty by 2010. Don’t forget that they and JRF first put remarkably similar figures, back in 2006, on how much the target would cost to achieve, then set at £4billion.
From the oral evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the Budget on 17 March (uncorrected, so the link might wander):
[responding to question 67 from Sally Keeble MP] Robert Chote, IFS: One way of hitting the 2010 target, our best guess would be that if you were to increase the child element of the Child Tax Credits, the means-tested element, by £7.50 a week and then give a new payment of £12.50 a week for the third and subsequent child through the family element [...] that would cost £2.8 billion. That gives you some sense of how much more money there is to find.
Also interesting is this:
Q68 Ms Keeble: We have talked about this before, but how about going into work as a solution to child poverty, particularly given the prospects of increased unemployment?
Mr Chote: It does not make much difference on the timescale for 2010. [...] success on that front does not really get you very far in terms of the near-term target, it is either transfer payments or nothing at this stage.
So, getting more people into work isn’t the key to the 2010 target - putting more money in the pockets of families living below the poverty line whether in work or not through tax credits and benefits is. Longterm, talking about the next target of ending all child poverty by 2020, of course getting people into work and making sure they are paid decently is crucial (IPPR have recently published an interesting report on this) - though good social services, education and healthcare are important too.
But in order to think about what comes next, in order to have any chance of the 2020 target, we’ve got to get this one right. If you’ll forgive me badly paraphrasing a credit card ad - more money in tax credits for poor families: £2.8bn. Halving (then a shot at ending) child poverty: priceless.
EDIT, next morning: turns out I wrote a post setting out the background last December - here.


